Crypto Betting Platform Polymarket Emerges as Unlikely Hub for Geopolitical Wagers
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, has gained traction as an unconventional venue for high-stakes geopolitical betting. The platform, which previously gained attention for accurately forecasting Donald Trump''s 2024 election win before traditional polls, now dominates conflict-related speculation with over $1.7 million in volume tied to Middle Eastern tensions.
Markets currently price an 88% probability of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by June 13, with parallel wagers tracking potential US military involvement. The platform''s predictive accuracy was demonstrated when its 99% probability market for Iranian retaliation against Israel materialized within hours on June 13.